Solution · Data Science

Models that change the decision.

Models that survive an auditor, a regulator, and a macroeconomic cycle. We use the simplest method that wins — and reach for advanced AI only where it demonstrably pays back.

The challenge

Decisions still run on gut feel.

Credit, pricing, stock, retention — the calls that move your P&L are made daily, and mostly from experience and habit. The data is there; it just doesn't reach the moment of decision.

And where models do exist, too many stay in notebooks — impressive in the demo, absent from the workflow, indefensible in front of an auditor.

Our approach

Decision engines, not experiments.

We build models that live inside the decision: scored in seconds, explainable to the applicant and the regulator alike, measured against the money they move.

Each engine starts from a pattern we've already run in production — credit, fraud, churn, pricing, stock — trained on your data, using the simplest method that wins.

What it buys you

Lower risk losses. More accurate forecasts. Targeted spend on customers, SKUs and channels that actually return. Models you can defend on paper.

When to start

Mid maturity. Useful as soon as production data is reliable and the team can support a model life-cycle. Audit-grade work needs a platform where every number can be traced and reproduced.

Use cases & how we solve them

Where this lands in practice. Each row opens with the detail — and what it buys you.

01
Lending

Credit decision engine

Approve, decline, limit and terms — decided in seconds, not committees. Scorecards, rules and affordability checks in one engine, explainable to the applicant and the regulator alike.

  • Scorecards, rules and affordability checks combined in one decision flow
  • Decisions in seconds, explainable to the applicant and the regulator alike
  • Champion / challenger built in, so the engine keeps improving in production

The payoff. Approval speed of a fintech, loss rates the risk committee signs off.

02
Lending

Risk-based pricing

One price for everyone means your best customers subsidize your worst. Price each loan by its actual risk — margin protected on the risky end, growth unlocked on the safe one.

  • Each loan priced from its actual risk, not one blended rate
  • Margin protected on the risky end, growth unlocked on the safe one
  • Elasticity tested, so pricing moves are evidence, not guesses

The payoff. Your best customers stop subsidizing your worst.

03
Risk & finance

NPL portfolio management

Non-performing loans are a portfolio, not a pile. We score recovery likelihood per exposure, match each segment to the right strategy — restructure, collect, sell — and price the portfolio for either outcome.

  • Recovery likelihood scored per exposure, refreshed as behaviour changes
  • Segments matched to strategy — restructure, collect, sell
  • The portfolio priced for either outcome: hold or sale

The payoff. The workout desk works the cases where working matters.

04
Risk & finance

Fraud detection models

Scoring every transaction in the moment it happens — catching the fraud without strangling the checkout. Tuned to your loss data, monitored for drift from day one.

  • Every transaction scored in the moment, tuned to your loss data
  • Thresholds balanced against checkout friction — fraud caught without strangling conversion
  • Drift monitored from day one: fraud adapts, so does the model

The payoff. Losses fall faster than false alarms rise.

05
Sales

Churn & retention

Who's about to leave, why, and what offer changes their mind — lifecycle-aware models feeding next-best-action, not a slide deck. Retention spend goes where it actually retains.

  • Lifecycle-aware models: who is leaving, why, and what changes their mind
  • Next-best-action feeds the channels you already run — not a slide deck
  • Retention spend measured against retained revenue

The payoff. Save offers go to the customers who would actually have left.

06
Sales

Real-time customer intelligence

The right upsell or cross-sell at the moment the customer is listening — in the app, at the till, in the call. Propensity models served in real time, measured against revenue, not clicks.

  • Propensity models served in the moment — in the app, at the till, in the call
  • Offers ranked by expected revenue, not click likelihood
  • Every recommendation measured against uplift

The payoff. The right offer while the customer is still listening.

07
Sales · Telco

Customer influencer score

Some customers take ten others with them when they go. Network analysis over calls, contracts and households finds who actually sways whom — so retention protects the customers who matter beyond their own bill.

  • Network analysis over calls, contracts and households — who actually sways whom
  • Influence factored into retention priority and offer size
  • Built for telco-scale data volumes

The payoff. Retaining one customer keeps ten.

08
Pricing & yield

Dynamic advertising pricing

Ad inventory priced by demand, audience and moment instead of a static rate card — yield managed continuously across channels, with the floor prices your sales team can defend.

  • Inventory priced by demand, audience and moment — not a static rate card
  • Yield managed continuously across channels
  • Floor prices your sales team can defend

The payoff. Revenue per slot rises without a single extra impression.

09
Operations

Dynamic stock optimization

Forecast-driven stock levels and allocation per SKU and location — less capital sitting on shelves, fewer empty ones. Reorder points that move with the season, not with last year's spreadsheet.

  • Forecast-driven stock levels per SKU and location
  • Reorder points that move with season and demand, not last year's spreadsheet
  • Allocation balanced between shelves, warehouses and cash

The payoff. Less capital on the shelves, fewer empty ones.

Proof

How we deliver it

Through the Moberg Delivery Framework — the same five stages, governance and engineering standards we run on every engagement, from business case to long-term run. Microsoft has independently validated this practice — but judge us on a model your auditor signs off and your board defends.

← All solutions Start a conversation →